Chapter 18 - Money and Loyalty

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The decisive difference in consciousness between Binta and the Imperial Navy's upper echelons in the Circle 4 Plan could be said that it is about war. Binta believed that a European war was already imminent, judging from the flow of money, people, and resources. He was concerned that Japan might be drawn into the war if it made a wrong national policy decision. On the other hand, the Imperial Navy did not share such concerns and lacked a sense of urgency regarding a full-scale war.

"Does the Imperial Navy have plans for aircraft carriers, like wartime emergency construction models?" Binta asked Minister Yonai and Vice-Minister Yamamoto directly.

"When the time comes, we have plans to convert special mission ships and merchant ships into aircraft carriers. However, there is no plan for the rapid construction of regular aircraft carriers," Minister Yonai replied honestly, although it might touch on classified information.

Binta's expression tensed a bit at the expected response, and he told the Minister the conditions for funding the carrier.

"You must complete the carrier in a total of 30 months, including six months for specification and design, and two years for construction. If you can accomplish this, we will pay for the construction of the three carriers in full."

In response to the unexpected offer from Binta, Minister Yonai asked for the reasons.

"I apologize for speaking in a somewhat prophetic manner, but armored aircraft carriers will not be ready when it's crucial. The construction takes too much time. So, I have attached conditions to our support for the three aircraft carriers you desire."

Minister Yonai and Vice-Minister Yamamoto frowned at Binta's words.

"What do you mean by that 'crucial time'?" Minister Yonai asked without losing his polite tone.

"Of course, I mean a war," Binta replied at once, which surprised Minister Yonai and Vice-Minister Yamamoto. "Regardless of the name, Japan is already in a de facto state of war with China. And in the near future, the United States will intervene in Japan using economic sanctions. After all, the United States desires the continent's interests more than anything else. The targets of those sanctions will undoubtedly be strategic resources such as oil and iron, especially the lifeblood of the economy, oil. Without access to oil, Japan will be helpless."

Binta's prediction of future conflict between Japan and the United States surprised Vice-Minister Yamamoto, who offered a counterargument.

"Satsutaba-san, aren't your claims a bit exaggerated? Certainly, the United States is showing displeasure with Japan's actions on the continent. But I don't think they will stop exporting to Japan, considering their domestic economic situation isn't great."

For the United States, Japan is undoubtedly a valued customer. Japan purchases a large number of industrial products such as automobiles, trucks, construction machinery, industrial machinery, and natural resources like oil and metals. They even bought patented high-octane gasoline and high-performance lubricating oil at exorbitant prices without complaining. As a result, Japan runs a significant trade deficit with the United States, but the nation does not view it as a major issue. After all, the source of that money is an individual, Binta Satsutaba. However, Binta believed that the United States was willing to impose economic sanctions on Japan, even at the cost of cutting off their favorite customer.

"First, as a premise, I will talk about the global situation. Germany is planning to invade Poland by the end of this year. This is one hundred percent certain. If I'm wrong, I will bear the entire cost of the Circle 5 Plan."

Binta made an incredible promise, and Minister Yonai and Vice-Minister Yamamoto remained silent, waiting for his next words.

"In response to this, the United Kingdom and France will declare war on Germany. This will lead to a significant upheaval, which can be called the European War, happening in that region. President Roosevelt of the United States also wishes to participate in the European War. For him, Germany, or rather the Nazis, are the enemies to be defeated. However, the domestic situation is even more significant. The United States has been experiencing an unemployment rate of around twenty percent as of late. It's a high unemployment rate in the United States, which shows no signs of recovery, and Roosevelt does not have the means to address it. In other words, they are at an impasse. However, if the United States participates in the war, the situation will change dramatically. Unemployment rates will likely drop to below five percent. Roosevelt will not miss this opportunity."

When it comes to the economy, especially when it involves the United States, Binta is the expert. So, Minister Yonai and Vice-Minister Yamamoto nodded slightly and encouraged him to continue.

"If, hypothetically, Japan and Germany form an alliance that includes a provision for mutual participation in the war, the United States will undoubtedly take advantage of that situation to provoke Japan in various ways. The Japanese, who are easily agitated by the behavior of the United States, will lose their composure and may willingly fall into the traps set for them."

After Binta finished explaining what he meant by the "crucial time," Vice-Minister Yamamoto spoke up.

"If I summarize what you're saying, a war in Europe may start by the end of the year. Furthermore, Roosevelt, who desires the defeat of Germany, will try to use our country as a catalyst for his participation in the war. However, even if a war in Europe were to break out, our country is not in an alliance with Germany. In other words, if we don't team up with Germany, the United States may not excessively provoke us."

"Yamamoto-san is correct. But is that possible? Given the current situation, even if we can avoid an automatic declaration of war clause, a highly involved alliance is likely to be formed. If, for instance, Germany continues its rapid advance in the early stages of the European War, there will be a huge outcry throughout Japan, with many claiming that we missed the bus. In such a situation, opposing the alliance may even make you a target for fanatical alliance supporters. Yonai-san and Yamamoto-san, who are trying to distance themselves from Germany, could find themselves in a very dangerous position."

Binta, who had scaled down the discussion from concerns about a world war to individual worries, received a smile from Vice-Minister Yamamoto.

"We appreciate your concern, but we are prepared for such situations. When the nation is on the verge of making a wrong decision, sitting idly by is a betrayal to the nation. Both Minister Yonai and I will do anything to avoid a war with the United States. We don't value this life if it means preventing a war."

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