Having lost the area east of Krasnoyarsk, the Soviet Union decided to concentrate its forces in Novosibirsk as its final line of defense. The city was fortified, and the army consisted of eight infantry divisions and two tank divisions. There are also two volunteer brigades from Germany and Italy. In addition, three infantry divisions were widely deployed north of the Ob River to guard against a possible bypass by the Japanese forces. Fortunately for the Soviets, the Japanese and American allied forces were also inactive after the Krasnoyarsk invasion, building supply lines, stockpiling supplies, and resting and reorganizing their troops, so there was no problem.
At the same time, however, Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, was not so optimistic that Novosibirsk would be able to protect itself from the tide of the war. In terms of the number of divisions, they were about the same, and if one took into account the fact that they would be fighting in Novosibirsk, the difference in strength between the two countries would more than double.
But he had made that calculation before. As the leader of the war, he had always taken care to gain a numerical advantage. Despite this, they have always lost unilaterally. So it was natural that Stalin feared that he would lose the battle for Novosibirsk as well. However, it was unacceptable to give up Novosibirsk, the center of Siberia, to the rebels who called themselves Siberian Independence Faction. The loss of the Kuznetsk industrial zone, where a large amount of money had been invested in the Five-Year Plan, was not acceptable. Therefore, Stalin decided to call for a ceasefire with Japan and the United States through the League of Nations.
He called for the return of Siberia to the Soviet Union as an autonomous region east of Lake Baikal, with autonomy for the Slavs. He declared that he would not hold the Siberian independence faction responsible for any of the disturbances. As for Japan and the United States, they were allowed to engage in free economic activities only within the Siberian Autonomous Oblast.
This was a major concession for Stalin, but Japan, the US, and the Siberians rejected it as untenable. The war was already in the hands of Japan and the United States, and the Siberian Republic had already declared its independence. Under such circumstances, there was no reason to accept Stalin's overly optimistic proposal. However, both Japan and the US felt that marching to Moscow to bring the Soviet Union to its knees would be too costly, so they were looking for a way to end the war somewhere. The Siberian War of Independence became more and more political as the war entered its third month.
. . .
Japan (D-Day+65)
Japan's first concern was that it would be drawn into a war with the Soviet Union. If Japan is allowed to run away from the Soviet Union, as in the past Sino-Japanese War, the war will become a quagmire. Japanese public opinion is still full of antipathy toward the tyrannical Soviet Union, and the war itself is still superior—Japanese casualties have not reached 500, and the war has been a series of victories. But the Japanese government was not so complacent as to think that it would last forever. *1 In fact, they were even afraid that it might turn over at any moment.
In that sense, they recognized Stalin's call for a ceasefire and peace as an opportunity, even if it was not worth talking about. Nevertheless, it was an absolute requirement that the area east of the Ob River is made independent as the Siberian Republic. There was a calculation that the Kuznetsk Industrial Zone was absolutely necessary for the independent Siberian Republic to confront the Soviet Union as an independent nation and run its own state. It was a decision based on a report by the Siberian Post-Independence State Management Review Headquarters, which was created under the Cabinet Office in cooperation with universities and other organizations.
Resource areas such as Primorsky Krai alone could not resist the Soviet Union. If the Siberian Republic were to become independent east of Lake Baikal without the Kuznetsk industrial/resource zone, it would be difficult for Siberia to increase its national strength, and in this case, within ten years of independence, it would be unable to resist the military pressure of the Soviet Union and would be gradually federated with the Soviet Union, and eventually reannexed as an autonomous region. If this were to happen, the Soviet Union would have to be met again with Japan.
Japan could not allow such a thing to happen. Therefore, Japan was considering breaking the backbone of the Soviet Union's ability to carry on the war. The target is Stalin, and Japan will consider a strategy to target Stalin's mind.
. . .
Chinese Communist Party (D-Day+66)
The mission ordered by Stalin to hit Japanese/American allied supply lines was not fully successful due to the relentless Japanese patrols. Even when they tried to bring in explosives to destroy the tracks of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, they were caught by the sensors and attacked without question. When the number of failures reached double digits, the CCP decided to focus on terrorist activities further back in the Frontier Republic and Vladivostok instead of sabotage in Siberia. This was based on the judgment that economic turmoil would have a major impact on military activities.
In fact, Vladivostok, with its small Chinese population, was an interesting success compared to sabotage in the Frontier Republic, where the majority of the population is Chinese. As a result, three infantry divisions of the Frontier Republic, which had been scheduled to be deployed in the Siberian War of Independence, were sent on a security mission. But the price was high. The position of the Chinese within the Frontier Republic deteriorated rapidly. The US chose to thoroughly destroy the Chinese community in the Frontier Republic, the sea of people where the CCP hides.
The US put a bounty on the CCP and expelled all those who supported it from the Frontier Republic. On top of that, they chose to expel anyone with a criminal record, including their families, from the Frontier Republic if the crime was not minor. It was a horrific breakdown. There was a tragic accident when an innocent Chinese man was shot dead by an American settler who mistook him for a member of the CCP.
However, the repression continued. The influx of Russians, Jews, and even African-Americans, who had eaten their way through the US mainland, contributed to the decline in the value of the Chinese as a labor group. This led to a strong backlash against the Caucasian ethnic groups that made up the Frontier Republic, and the Frontier Republic was transformed into a land of turmoil. The CCP continued to pour oil on this smoldering situation.
. . .
Soviet Union (D-Day+67)
Although Stalin was unsure of his position, the Soviet Union was concentrating its forces according to a previously set schedule. They were concentrating their forces in accordance with the plan it had set. 20 divisions of the 4th Red Banner Front were mobilized for Siberia, leaving behind troops for Poland. They were assembled in Yekaterinburg, which had not yet been bombed by the Japanese, and were being transferred. The total force was about 30 divisions.
When Stalin saw the report, he was horrified. He realized that more than half of the Soviet Union's military power had been invested in Siberia. If this were to be lost, there would be no choice but to mobilize. The impact of this would certainly undermine the Soviet economy. Nevertheless, retreating without a single victory would have severely damaged Stalin's authority, and might even have led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Stalin decided to hold informal talks with Japan and the United States on a ceasefire through France, a G4 country that was relatively friendly to the Soviet Union.
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Notes
*1: The fact of the matter is that the opposition parties continue to criticize the ruling party in the Diet on a daily basis. And with doctrinaire constitutionalists and anti-war protesters demonstrating, there was a risk that the voters would perceive the ruling party as arrogant, and if that were to happen, support for the government, let alone support for the way, could be blown away. For this reason, the ruling party took a cautious approach.