The Siberian War of Independence, as it was later called, was not as well fought as it sounded. Especially during the first few months, after Admiral Ewald's defection, there were only sporadic skirmishes. This was due to the situation in Siberia. The infrastructure of Siberia had not yet recovered from the damage caused by the Soviet-Japanese War, so no matter how large a force the Red Army planned to suppress, it did not have the capacity to do so.
On top of that, the deprivation caused by the Five-Year Plan deprived the land of Siberia of enough power to support an army. Transporting troops would take a long time, and the food and other supplies needed to operate as an army would have to be brought in from the rear – the western part of the Soviet Union. No matter how much Stalin threatened or blasted them, it was to be expected that the Red Army would be slow to move. On the other hand, many people in the independence movement, including former Red Army troops stationed in Siberia, were on the verge of life or death, and were unable to take any active action.
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Japan-USSR Negotiations
The negotiations between Japan and the Soviet Union were about Admiral Ewald, the one who started the war of independence in Siberia. It was a demand for the immediate surrender of Admiral Ewald, a Soviet national asset. As for the captain and political officer, they demanded that they be handed over as criminals.
Japan was planning to grant asylum to the Republic of Okhotsk after interviewing the captain, political officers, and crew, and therefore declared at the outset that it would refuse the request for extradition as criminals out of humanitarian considerations. The problem was Admiral Ewald. Japan had no obligation to return the ship to the Soviet Union, but at the same time, there was the issue of its interests in the Primorsky Krai.
The Soviet diplomats were desperate: if Admiral Ewald was not returned, they would be forced to eliminate Japan's economic activities in Primorsky Krai in accordance with the reparation agreement of the Soviet-Japanese War Termination Treaty. The representative of the Soviet diplomatic corps declared that the Soviet Union had no choice but to consider that the faith between Japan and the Soviet Union had been lost.
This outraged Japan, who denounced the high-handed attitude of the Soviet Union and argued that if it did not abide by the terms of the treaty, it would be forced to return to the state of war that existed before the treaty was signed. The conference is in turmoil. The news of the armed uprising in Siberia convinced both sides that the other side had done it. *1 At any rate, the negotiations were temporarily adjourned until the situation calmed down. At this point, both Japan and the Soviet Union judged that the uprising in Siberia would not last for a long time.
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Primorsky Krai Response, Japan/United States
Japan was not involved in this war from the beginning, which was surprising to those who knew the course of events after the end of the Siberian War of Independence. It was unexpected. It had been working to reduce the Soviet Union's national strength in order to reduce the pressure on the Japanese Federation, but it had not envisioned that an independence movement would break out all over Siberia. Therefore, at the meeting with the American diplomats, which was held to understand the situation and plan countermeasures with the American companies operating in Siberia, mainly in the Primorsky Krai under Japanese control, the first thing the Japanese said was that they suspected an American conspiracy.
The US diplomats were stunned and asked if it was not a Japanese plot. The representative of the Republic of Guam, who was acting as an intermediary between Japan and the US, looked up to the heavens and said, "Holy shit," when he grasped the situation after this brief exchange. However, once he realized the situation, he made a quick decision. He decided to accumulate forces and supplies on the border and intervene if possible – to separate Siberia from the Soviet Union and establish a buffer state.
The reason for using the ambiguous expression "if possible" was because of the influence of the intervention wars after the World War. It was a lesson learned from those wars that even if you invade a country with military power and seize the land, if you cannot win the people's minds, resistance movements by partisans will arise and governance will be impossible. Moreover, if the people perceive the government as a foreign enemy, there is a possibility that they will unite the opposing independence movement factions and the Red Army over their grudges.
In the end, they would have wasted military expenditures and would have lost all of their investments in Primorsky Krai, and would have had to withdraw. On this point, Japan and the US were in agreement.
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Japan, Republic of Okhotsk
The Japanese government had been asked by the Republic of Okhotsk to interfere in the war for independence in Siberia. To be precise, it was to protect the Siberian people who were suffering from the deprivation of daily commodities and food. As fellow Russians (Russian Japanese), they wanted to do something about it. The Republic of Okhotsk was driven by righteous indignation after learning about the internal situation of the Soviet Union through interviews with the crews of Admiral Ewald. The inside information was amusingly edited by the mass media and published in newspapers and on the internet.
The Japanese government and the government of the Republic of Okhotsk instructed the media when they made too much of the story, but the information continued to be released under a policy that basically did not allow information control. For this reason, some short-tempered residents of the Republic of Okhotsk took up arms, and if they were Russian, they even called out in the streets to organize a volunteer army and go to Siberia, along with other such calls. Even those who did not go that far began to donate money and relief supplies for their fellow countrymen in Siberia, even though their countries were different.
This movement also spread beyond the Republic of Okhotsk to Japan and other countries. Goodwill was the result of the wealth of Japan and the Japanese Federation. From the time slip, to the expansion of the country, to the war, Japan's economy has not been able to get out of the mess, but it still has the scientific and economic power of the 2020s. The Japanese Federation, controlled by Japan, was one of the richest in the world. There was no shortage of food, clothing, and shelter. Therefore, it was sensitive to the misfortunes of its neighbors. As a democracy, Japan could not go against the will of the people. For this reason, it sought a humane way to interfere with the Soviet Union as long as it did not aggravate relations with them. *2
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Soviet Union, Volunteer Army
At the negotiations with Japan, the Soviet Union, convinced that Japan was behind the Siberian uprising, was terrified. *3 They decided to somehow crush the Siberian uprising before Japan could invade in earnest. But to do so, they lacked automobiles and tanks. The Soviet-Japanese War had completely destroyed Siberia's transportation infrastructure, especially the railroads, and it had not yet recovered sufficiently. Therefore, horse-drawn carriages and automobiles were indispensable for deploying troops. Carriages, however, were in short supply. There was also a shortage of tanks, which were highly effective in intimidating people.
It was Germany and Italy that came to the rescue. Both countries offered to sell their tanks and cars. Not only that, but they also proposed to send volunteer soldiers and fighter and bomber pilots with their equipment. Of course, it was not with good intentions, but with the desire to test the newly developed equipment in actual combat. There was also the aspect that they were sold to dispose of the tanks that had become obsolete with the appearance of the Type 31 tanks.
The Soviet Union understood this, and Stalin was even angry that he was being watched. At the same time, however, he was grateful for the help extended to him in his time of need. This was the inauguration of the de facto Tripartite Pact between Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union.
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Notes
*1: From Japan's point of view, the intentional outburst in Siberia, where animosity toward the Soviet Union had been building up, was a pretext for armed suppression. The Soviets believed that Japan was plotting to invade not only Primorsky Krai but all of Siberia.
*2: In addition to humanitarian intervention, the Japanese government issued the first practical orders to the Japanese Joint Forces to prepare for war, including the mobilization of troops, in order to counter armed refugees. The 1st Army Group of the Japanese Federation's combined forces was formed on the border between Japan and the Soviet Union, with three divisions (17th Division, 201st Division, 601st Division) as its core.
In the Republic of Okhotsk, former Russian and Soviet servicemen came to the door of the Republican Army with chivalry, so the 603rd Division (motorized) was formed as a temporary force to make up for the small defense budget, and a new air force was formed for operations in Siberia.
The 10th Air Wing was composed of pilots from the JASDF and Okhotsk Armed Forces, as well as the latest fighter aircraft, the F-5, later known as the Freedom Fighter. With three squadrons as its backbone, the 10th Air Wing had transport and liaison aircraft, as well as a heavily-organized ground security force (regimental size) under its command, as it was expected to travel throughout Siberia. In order to support the operations of the 10th Air Wing, the air defense command center on the Korean Peninsula was strengthened.
*3: It was a completely unfounded fear, but for the paranoid Stalin, suspicion was the same as fact. He was convinced that Japan must be destroyed.