The Eurovision Song Contest 2024

Qualifier prediction 2

Here is how my prediction changed with the edition of the running order:

Semi one:
Cyprus - I still don't believe this will qualify, yes first can be beneficial as you are remembered as theopening act however it can also be extremely damaging due to the recency effect.

Serbia- Serbia was never going to be a sure qualifier. I don't believe they will qualify from the death slot. This will take some strong work from the fans of this song to get it through. The casual viewer won't go for this if it's in second place!
Lithuania- I did have my doubts when I saw the running order. It's early and close to the Uk (who is similar in genre). However, I believe it has the support and is stronger then the other songs I had doubts about!

Ireland - again, not sure about this, still due to the reasons I stated before but now we uave the added worry that Poland will cancel Ireland out of the viewers minds due to a clash (which I don't believe is too strong but apparently it is). I now predict this will qualify though! It's memorable, this means it's taking Serbia's spot in my prediction!

(Uk)

Ukraine- nothing changed in my prediction for this, it will qualify.

Poland- fought with Ireland for a spot and in my books it missed out. Ireland leans fully into that niche, therefore they will most likely get the votes from that niche over this. Surrounded by two almost 100% qualifiers, I don't see this sticking in peoples minds. On the other hand, will the staging blow us away???

Croatia- nothing changed, this will qualify.

Iceland- Next to Germany!! While Germany is generic, this is the definintion of generic. They will not only clash in that way but it will also highlight Icelands genericness. Maybe I'm missing something here???