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Eurovoix has set up their AI prediction system, the Model. It takes all the information currently available to it and makes an estimate as to who would win if Eurovision took place now.
Now, there is a lot that I don't agree with, so let's take a look at it's first prediction:
Semi final 1:
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I disagree very strongly with this prediction. All of the NQ are in my 21 and above. Azerbaijan being my 21st, Luxembourg my 15th, Serbia my 13th, Australia my 12th and Moldova my 8th. 6 of the qualifiers are bellow them in my ranking, surely I'm not that different from everyone else.
From a objective view, I can see that the ballads will struggle and Moldova isn't very popular. However, also from an objective view, Australia and Luxembourg seem too catchy not to qualify. Especially considering who this AI says will qualify! I think we can all agree, that Iceland would be a shock qualifier, yet the AI is so certain that they will qualify! Poland and Cyprus are less catchy than Australia and Luxembourg and have a similar amount of support from what I have gathered.
The order, I know lot's of people like Ukraine's and they are in a situation which makes them stand out and gives them sympathy votes, but I can't see them winning this semi. Especially against Croatia!
Moving on to semi-final 2:
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Obviously, I will mourn San Marino, but they are near the bottom in the odds. On the other hand, rock does well with the televote!
I don't believe Malta will be last and I wouldn't be so sure that Czechia's performance won't improve!
Georgia doesn't seem likely to get through, especially by such a margin. I would get it if it just scrapped through.
Greece won't be that low! Surely! Austria and Netherlands also a bit to low. I agree that Switzerland has semi-final winning chances! Norway deserves that space!
The AI believes people will get behind Israel! Thus makes sense since the only way to vote against, is to vote for everyone else.
Final:
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If Italy wins, I will be over the moon! Quick fact, if this was true, than this would be the lowest winning points ever since the change in voting and the lowest margin as well! Again, I don't get Ukraine's but other's do so moght happen. Switzerland will be high. Sweden doesn't deserve that place with this song, however they probably will still get it! I can see Israel doing well, I don't want them to but I can! I can see Belgium. If Norway do that well, I will scream with joy! I can see Lithuania. I don't see why Austria will do so much better in jury, I see it the other way around. I think Croatia will be higher! They are soooo hyped up. I can see France winning. So, I don't agree with their placement. I think Netherlands might do better in the televote, or they could suffer due to the amount of overlaping songs! They have such large streaming figures though! Greece is so hyped up, their staging will be amazing, I can see them higher! I can actually see Finland at the bottom after doing so well in the semi, their are better songs to vote for in the same niche. I hope Armenia will do better, but I fear this is were they will place. Again, I would place Cyprus lower but some people like it. I feel like Estonia will take Finlands spot. I think Georgia is in the right spot if they qualify. If Spain do this badly (which is well within the realms of reality) I will cry. Same applies to Slovenia, I believe they will do better than this, do you agree? Although they are always underrated, every year. I can see Poland there. I think the jury will go for Portugal, surely they will place higher! Ireland is so unique that I feel like they will place higher, however I do also agree with AI because witch and demons don't place high! Might be famous last words but the Uk should place higher! They have a good pop song, better than Sweden and I think we will get a good staging! It's Olly Alexander! I think we will do better than this. Do you agree disagree??? I think if Iceland qualifies than this will be around their fate. I feel like Germany under Iceland isn't fair but it seems true. No one wants to vote for Germany, don't pretend our song is worse than Icelands. Look I'm not a fan of the song but give us some credit where it's due. The song isn't the worst in this line up!
