Games of Chance

One

"And the beauty of the number e is elevated even further if one looks at it as a limit," Princess Juliana VanderSchee of Arcana explained through the small, grainy screen. Chase Hewkin watched intently, adjusting his wiry glasses on the bridge of his pointed nose so that he could better observe her magnificence. He took in every detail of her with the observational spirit of a true scientist: her sea green eyes, brilliant with knowledge that far exceeded her years; her jet black hair pulled into a bun so perfect that Chase was sure he could graph it as a circle on the x-y plane; her crimson blouse that sat just underneath her collarbones.

Assuming all confounding variables were accounted for, a young woman had exactly a 5.67% chance of having collarbones like hers...yet there she was, grinding the odds into the dust. And most importantly, there was her voice... what a voice it was! Chase could listen to her expound on mathematical theory in her polished British accent for hours, and that was exactly what he was doing. It was exactly 1:56 AM on a restless Friday night in January, and he was already bingeing her entire YouTube channel for the second time that week.

His parents called it a phase, his sister called it a result of a geek's propensity to be attracted to others of his kind, but whatever it was, the truth was obvious: Chase Hewkin was obsessed with Princess Juliana. There was something about the way she talked about math that made her different from other mathematicians- she didn't see it as a mere subject, or even a discipline. No, she saw math as something organic and beautiful: the underappreciated art of the universe. Chase liked to think that he and the young Arcanese aristocrat were the only people in the world who saw it this way. This was the root of his overwhelming attraction to her, though of course, the fact that she was a very beautiful princess certainly helped.

"Whatcha doin' Numbers?" Chase took in a sharp breath through his nose as Princess Juliana's voice was interrupted by a much less compelling one.

"The real question is, what are you doing awake and in my room?" His sister was only twelve years old, and it was way past her bedtime. Way past the time he should've had to be worrying about her sneaking up on him watching Juliana's videos.

"I was bored," she shrugged, casually licking her Cheeto dust-covered fingers.

"Meg..." Chase groaned, hitting the power button on his desktop as he leaned back in his office chair. "There was a thirteen percent chance you'd be awake right now- thirteen percent- and yet here you are."

"You know, Numbers, I always wonder," Meg mused, sitting down on the edge of Chase's desk. "Can you actually calculate all those probabilities, or do you just say random stuff to make yourself sound smarter?"

"I don't calculate them," Chase grumbled. "I just know."

"Oh, right. A magician doesn't reveal his secrets, or something like that. I bet you'd tell her, though," Meg smirked tauntingly darting her eyes over at Chase's computer, watching as his cheeks turned red as a beet. "You'd tell her all about it- and who knows, maybe you actually could."

It was then that Chase noticed that she'd been holding her left hand behind her back ever since she walked into his room. Craning his neck to get a better look, he caught a flash of something balled up in her tightly shut fist.

"What's that?" he asked with a frown, standing up from his chair to reach for his sister's hand. She hopped off his desk, unfolding her fingers to reveal a crumpled but legible flyer. She smoothed it out on the front of her thigh before holding it up for Chase to see.

"North Texas STEM Career Convention," he read softly to himself, his eyes widening at the words that came next. "Featuring Princess Juliana Vanderschee of Arcana as keynote speaker." Underneath was an old picture of Juliana that he'd seen many times before- the one she used as her YouTube icon. He stared at the picture for what felt like a solid minute, unable to believe his eyes.

For most of his life, he'd known that there was a 0.018% chance that Princess Juliana would ever visit Texas. The chances of her speaking at a convention only fifteen minutes away from his hometown were even more minuscule. None of it made mathematical sense... and that was exactly what convinced Chase that this was truly the opportunity of a lifetime- a neatly packaged, promptly delivered gift from the universe to Chase Adam Hewkin.

"Wait a second... why did you take the trouble to bring this to me?" Chase frowned, a seed of doubt growing in his mind. If there's anything you learned from being a mathematician, it was that the answers rarely, if ever, come out perfectly even. If it's too good to be true, it probably isn't true. And Chase's annoying middle school sister fulfilling his dreams at two in the morning? That was a little too good to be true.

"When's the convention?" Meg asked simply, her short, thick ponytail bouncing behind her as she fidgeted in place.

"The nineteenth through the twenty first. But Juliana's speaking on the nineteenth," Chase read from the flyer, confused as to how exactly this related to his question.

"When's my birthday?" Meg continued immediately, not stopping to explain where she was going with this.

"...the nineteenth." Chase curled his hands into fists and a wave of anger hit him as he realized what she was hinting at. "You just want me out of the house on your birthday, don't you? You little brat!"

"Well, of course I do!" Meg half-yelled, crossing her arms in defiance. "Face it, Numbers, you're embarrassing! What if my friends find out that my brother is a glasses-wearing, foreign princess-worshiping, math-obsessed nerd?"

Chase wanted to scream. He wanted to call her stupid and immature. He wanted to unleash his weapon of choice- statistics- in full force, emphasizing the vast difference between his and Meg's respective likelihoods of getting into MIT. But he couldn't. He couldn't let a fight with his sister get in the way of his dream. She had given him what he wanted the most, regardless of her motivations, and whether he liked it or not, his best option was to work with her.

"Okay, Meg. I know you don't like me- and trust me, the feeling is mutual- but if we both want to get what we want, we need to convince Mom and Dad to let me go to the convention."

"Oh, I've already told Mom and Dad. They're really excited that you're finally getting out of the house, even though they did say you'd have to pay for your own ticket," Meg said proudly. "Come on, we gotta reserve you a spot before they're all gone!"

Chase had never imagined his little sister getting this excited for a STEM convention. He watched with a strange feeling of approval as she leaned over his shoulder, turned his computer back on, and typed in the web address listed on the flyer. Toggling to the tab titled "tickets," she scrolled slowly down the page as Chase surveyed his options.

16+ General Admission: Attend all convention events including speeches and seminars. All day access to the exhibit hall. Meals not included: $25. Meals included: $40.

16+ VIP Admission: General Admission PLUS dinner and Q&A session with Princess Juliana VanderSchee. Meals not included: $185. Meals included: $200

Chase paused, his cursor hovering over the description of VIP admission. He didn't usually waste his money on junk food and useless trinkets and had accumulated a respectable amount of savings- if he asked for a two month advance on his allowance, he might be able to scrape the money together. What was he thinking so hard for? The decision was a no-brainer. There was nothing more worthwhile he could spend his money on!

"Oh, and I forgot to tell you," Meg brusquely interrupted his thoughts. "You're not getting VIP, even if you somehow could afford it. Mom specifically told me to remind you that she's letting you go there to 'explore career options,' not to meet your celebrity crush. Dad wants you to focus on what matters, too."

Chase was so glad he was finally going to see Princess Juliana in person that this minor disappointment barely registered in his mind. After all, both statistically and practically, it was unreasonable for him to expect everything to go his way. Selecting the button for general admission, he continued to the payment screen, all while Meg observed his every action from behind his chair. As he finished the transaction, his eyes made their way to the date listed in blocky, white numbers at the bottom of his screen. January 11, 2018. He was only eight days away from the day he never realized he'd always been waiting for: the day that would change his life in ways that statistics could never predict.