It's explanatory session time.
- Ishiwara
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[Commentary] The Road to Establishing Japanese Hegemony
There is no doubt that present-day Japan holds a position as a powerful nation uniting the Third Civilization Area. So why did Japan come to occupy this position of leading the Third Civilization Area, or why was it necessary for Japan to do so?
First, let's take a look at Japan's history leading up to this point.
Once upon a time, Japan existed on a planet called Earth, different from the world at the present day. In other words, the Japanese archipelago, which constitutes Japan, existed on that Earth, and the formation of Japan as a nation also occurred on Earth. Its establishment is said to date back over 2.600 years, starting from the enthronement of the first emperor, Emperor Jimmu, who is considered the ancestor of the current reigning emperor.
For a long time thereafter, Japan's history unfolded largely within its own borders.
What does this mean? In typical nations, there would be interactions or conflicts with neighboring countries, experiencing rises and falls, and becoming part of world history. However, until modern times, Japan showed little inclination to actively conquer other nations. Apart from exceptions like the Mongol invasions during the Kamakura period and the Korean campaigns during the Azuchi-Momoyama period, these events were considered minor and mostly unknown to anyone outside Japan except for history enthusiasts.
This situation changed with the arrival of Commodore Perry in the 6th year of Kaei, in the year 1853 AD. At that time, Japan, under the rule of the Edo Shogunate, had enjoyed over 260 years of peace. However, around the same time, the world saw the onset of the Industrial Revolution, originating from the United Kingdom, leading to colonial competition among Western powers. The impact of the Industrial Revolution was tremendous, granting countries that achieved it a production capacity several times greater than before. Despite Japan peacefully slumbering amidst these global upheavals, it was about to face the brunt of this enormous force.
Realizing the threat of potential colonization posed by Perry's arrival, Japan became aware of the need to navigate turbulent times. Firstly, it initiated a revolution called the Meiji Restoration, overthrowing the Edo Shogunate and establishing the modern Meiji government, which rivaled the Western powers in terms of governance systems. Subsequently, it commenced modernization and military strengthening under the slogan of "Fukoku Kyōhei," meaning "Enrich the Country, Strengthen the Armed Forces." Thus, Japan acquired enough power to defend itself and resisted the trend of colonization by Western powers. In reality, the situation at that time was dire, with Japan facing the serious prospect of being swallowed up by Western powers.
The turning point came with the First Sino-Japanese War in the 27th year of Meiji, in the year 1894 AD. At that time, tensions between China and Japan over Korea escalated into a full-scale conflict triggered by the outbreak of the Donghak Peasant Revolution. Initially, the world expected China to prevail, but the result was a victory for Japan. This war vividly showcased the disparity between China, which remained entrenched in its old ways despite being likened to a dormant lion, and Japan, which had successfully modernized. Thus, Japan began to be seen as the most influential nation in Asia, culminating in the signing of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in the 35th year of Meiji, in the year 1902 AD. However, in terms of national strength, Japan remained a relatively weak nation, constantly under the threat of being swallowed up if it showed any weakness. Thus, there were nations already making moves to engulf not only Japan but also East Asia as a whole. One such nation was the Russian Empire.
The Russo-Japanese War broke out in the 37th year of Meiji, in the year 1904 AD. This war ended in a judgment victory for Japan, achieving its goal of defending against the Western powers, which was the purpose of its modernization. Afterward, Japan increased its influence in the Korean Peninsula, Manchuria, and northern China. Why was it necessary to actively expand influence beyond its borders? It was for the sake of self-defense. Not just Japan, no nation desires its territory to become a battlefield or its land to be consumed by war.
In the Russo-Japanese War, the battlefield was dangerously close to Japan's mainland, posing a real risk of such a scenario. Therefore, by placing its neighboring regions under its influence, Japan ensured that these countries would serve as buffer zones in the event of war. There is also a theory that the Korean campaigns were aimed at countering the expansion of Spain and Portugal, which were invading various regions around the world.
In this way, major powers that influence the world endeavor to keep the battlefield away from their own territories. For example, the United States also placed Hawaii and the Philippines under its influence to reduce the risk of direct invasion to its mainland. However, this led to conflicts with Japan, which also sought to keep the battlefield away to the east. Of course, that alone wasn't the sole cause, but it's undeniable that Japan was perceived as a threat to American safety.
And thus, in the 14th year of Shōwa, in the year 1939 AD, the outbreak of World War II finally led both countries to war. As you know, the result ended with Japan's defeat. Afterward, without extending its influence externally, Japan devoted all efforts to the reconstruction and development of its homeland, while also focusing on strengthening its military for self-defense.
Then, in the 27th year of Heisei, in the year 2015 AD, according to the Central Calendar Year 1639, the Japanese archipelago underwent a dimensional shift. The cause of this shift remains unknown to this day, but it resulted in various major issues that needed immediate resolution.
First and foremost, there was an urgent need to rebuild forcibly severed diplomatic relations. For this purpose, diplomats were initially dispatched to the discovered countries, one after another, to establish diplomatic ties. However, this stance inadvertently plunged Japan into a new conflict.
The first to occur was the Lourian War. It was a war where the Principality of Qua-Toyne, the first friendly nation in this world, was invaded by its neighbor, the Kingdom of Louria. Due to resource supply issues, the National Defense Force was deployed to end the conflict.
Next was the Japanese-Parpaldian War.
The incident began when a fleet dispatched by Japan to the military festival held in the island nation of Fenn, located to the west from Japan's perspective, got embroiled in the conflict between the Kingdom of Fenn and the Parpaldia Empire. The situation escalated after the attackers were repelled, leading to the later massacre of Japanese nationals and eventually full-scale war with the Parpaldia Empire. In this way, after the dimensional shift, Japan, amidst a state of confusion, indiscriminately expanded its reach, making itself a target for extremely aggressive nations and being forced into unwanted wars. To prevent such a situation from happening again, present-day Japan has devised a solid strategy.
So, let's take a look at Japan's strategy in this world.
Japan's fundamental stance hasn't changed from the old world. Above all, the preservation of the nation itself takes precedence. For this, what's needed is firstly, resources; secondly, markets; and thirdly, buffer zones.
Firstly, resources include food necessary for all living beings to survive, minerals required to drive industries, and fuel necessary to operate electronics and logistics. Without these, it would be difficult for a nation, or even a living being, to survive.
Next is the market, which is necessary to keep the economy running. To employ people, produce goods, develop technology, and sustain all of these, earning money is essential. To earn money, there needs to be a market where one can sell their country's goods. If there's a market where one can sell goods exclusively, one could almost infinitely earn money.
Lastly, buffer zones refer to the act of keeping battlefields away from one's own country, just like in the old world. Specifically, this involves anticipating invasions from the west of the Third Civilization Area, i.e., the First and Second Civilization Areas, and establishing territories as buffer zones between them.
Up to this point, we've examined the essential elements required for Japan's strategy. Now, let's delve into how Japan should fulfill these requirements specifically.
Essential to this endeavor is the control of the Rodenius and Philades continents. The Philades continent, like the Parpaldia Empire that once waged war against Japan, poses a direct threat to Japan and must be brought within Japan's sphere of influence. In fact, the Parpaldian military once plotted to send fleets to Maizuru City to engulf it in flames and had indeed dispatched fleets. Therefore, it's imperative for the Philades continent to fall within Japan's sphere of influence.
Moreover, even more crucial is the Rodenius continent. The Principality of Qua-Toyne and the Kingdom of Quila in the northern part of the Rodenius continent are the most vital allied nations that supply nearly all the resources Japan requires. Severing ties with these nations would spell Japan's demise. Therefore, how to handle these two continents and the surrounding islands is key.
And this region can be roughly divided into five areas:
- The southern part, consisting of the Rodenius continent, the Kingdom of Altaras, and the Kingdom of Sios.
- The eastern part, consisting of the southeastern Philades continent, the Thearchy of Gahara, and the Kingdom of Fenn.
- The western part, consisting of the southwestern Philades continent.
- The northern part, consisting of the northern half of the Philades continent and the Kingdom of Topa.
- The central part, consisting of the Parpaldia Empire.
The southern part, where the Rodenius continent, Japan's lifeline, lies, must never relinquish its role as the primary supplier of resources, followed by Altaras and Sios, positioned to block the sea between the Philades and Rodenius continents, serving as the most crucial buffer zone.
Next, in the eastern part, the Lelis Federation, a former Parpaldian colony, exists as a friendly nation and is becoming a promising destination for Japanese companies' development, thereby potentially fulfilling the market requirement in the future. However, caution must be exercised due to Japan's delicate relationship with the kingdoms of Riem and Fenn. Especially Riem, an ambitious nation always seeking to expand its territory, is unique in its high degree of autonomy within the Third Civilization Area. On the opposite side, the Zejirabe Federation, the other half of the former colony, has become a friendly nation and meets the same conditions as the Lelis Federation.
Moreover, successful diplomatic relations have been established with the Great Magearchy of Pandora and the Kingdom of Marl, but the influence over there is still limited, as these relationships are relatively new, and Japan's influence has yet to extend significantly. However, both these nations have long been powerful civilizations, and their positioning at the farthest western end of the Philades continent makes them suitable to fulfill the role of buffer zones.
The northern part, where nations that have long been attentive to Japan have gathered, with the majority already falling under Japan's influence. Japan's influence continues to grow, and it has successfully secured a monopolistic market as the second requirement, although currently, the market size is still small. However, with Japan's intervention, development is ongoing, and it is expected to become a significant market in the future due to increased purchasing power.
In the central part, the Parpaldia Empire, which once sought to annihilate Japan, still exists, albeit currently serving as Japan's puppet to some extent. While its current power is minimal, the country itself is relatively affluent, and if left unchecked, it may regain influence in the future. Thus, constant vigilance is necessary.
Additionally, the Grameus Continent to the north of Philades falls within Japan's sphere of influence, specifically in the region known as the northeast, but for now, we'll exclude it from consideration.
In order for Japan to exert influence effectively in the Third Civilization Area, it's crucial that Japan maintains close relations with the southern region, strengthens cooperation with the western region, ensures the development of the northern region while keeping it under Japan's influence, prevents the central region from breaking away from Japan's control, and ensures that the eastern region remains united without turning against Japan. Moreover, all these regions should prioritize Japan over the influences from the west of the Third Civilization Area.
On the other hand, circumstances where Japan loses its influence would entail the eastern region uniting in rebellion against Japan, the central region breaking away from Japan's control to align with the eastern region's movements, escalating tensions with the western region, causing the northern region to withdraw due to fear of getting involved, deteriorating relations with the southern region leading to a halt in resource supply, and various regions aligning with forces from the west of the Third Civilization Area. If such scenarios unfold, Japan would lose its influence in the Third Civilization Area, leading to its withdrawal from the global power struggle.
Therefore, what Japan requires are allied nations. This approach significantly differs from traditional hegemonic powers that directly control various parts of the world. Japan's strategy revolves around how to attract and influence other countries. To achieve this, economic, diplomatic, and multilateral cooperation are essential. Although direct military force remains a powerful tool for influencing other nations, except in cases of armed aggression from other countries, it's not as crucial. Nevertheless, the fact remains that military power is still a potent tool for exerting influence over other nations, a trend more pronounced in this world compared to the old world.
A significant concern is the forces from the west of the Third Civilization Area, as mentioned earlier. While Japan undoubtedly holds supremacy in terms of economy, diplomacy, and military within the Third Civilization Area, this doesn't apply to other forces.
So, who are the forces that can influence the Third Civilization Area specifically?
According to government intelligence agencies, they are the Holy Mirishial Empire, the Kingdom of Emor, Mu, the Gra Valkas Empire, the Annonrial Empire, and the Vestal Continent.
The Holy Mirishial Empire possesses the most advanced technology in this world, backed by significant national, economic, and military power, making it undeniably the apex of this world. Hosting the Eleven Countries Leadership Conference, it demonstrates remarkable diplomatic prowess and holds a high international standing. However, the Holy Mirishial Empire prioritizes international cooperation over military dominance, making it less likely to exert influence aggressively unless confronted directly.
Similarly, Mu is a moderate nation that values international cooperation and has already established friendly relations with Japan. Nevertheless, due to Japan's overwhelming technological superiority, Japan may inadvertently influence Mu, potentially raising concerns among certain factions there.
The Kingdom of Emor, recognized as a powerful superpower after Mu, maintains strong international influence despite its highly discriminatory and exclusive ideologies. While not expansionist, it can be ruthless if engaged in hostilities.
On the other hand, the Gra Valkas Empire is a significant cause for concern. Having absorbed all nations outside the Second Civilization Area and currently invading the region, its aggressiveness is exceptionally high. With technology comparable to that of the Holy Mirishial Empire and military capabilities at the level of World War II, its influence is rapidly growing. The destruction of the superpower, Leifor, with just one battleship highlights its global influence. Continued aggression could extend to the Third Civilization Area, posing a direct threat.
Similarly, the Annonrial Empire, although outwardly portraying a medieval civilization, possesses advanced technology comparable to the Holy Mirishial Empire. While the reason for hiding its true capabilities is unclear, the fact that it does suggests nefarious intentions, warranting caution.
The Vestal Continent poses a geographical challenge. Although there isn't a unified force resembling a nation on this continent, its proximity to the Third Civilization Area means that if a unified state were to emerge, it would become a significant player regardless of its strength.
These forces, except for the Vestal Continent, wield considerable influence worldwide.
On the other hand, Japan, despite controlling the Third Civilization Area, remains a newcomer in this world. Consequently, its international status and influence inevitably fall short. So, how should Japan deal with these countries?
First and foremost is the relationship with Mu. Being one of the few nonmagical civilizations in this world, Mu has advanced mutual understanding with Japan in terms of technology and values. Furthermore, being the world's second-ranking superpower, it can compensate for Japan's lack of influence in this world. Strengthening ties with this country is, in essence, the gateway to participating in the world's power struggle. However, Mu belongs to the Second Civilization Area, farther away from the First Civilization Area. Hence, the next focus should be on the Holy Mirishial Empire.
Unfortunately, active negotiations with countries from the First Civilization Area, including the Holy Mirishial Empire, have yet to materialize. While defeating the Parpaldia Empire might open avenues for negotiations soon, it's uncertain if the shared values and understanding can be achieved with them, given their different technological system based on magic.
This is where Mu comes in. By collaborating with Japan, they can exert pressure on the First Civilization Area from both the east and the west, dispersing the directed forces and preventing unilateral influence. While overt flanking maneuvers aren't necessary in the absence of conflict, preparedness is crucial. Therefore, maintaining a strong relationship with Mu is imperative.
However, stabilizing the Second Civilization Area is essential for this. With instability at home, there's no room to interfere elsewhere. Moreover, extending a helping hand in times of need can facilitate the establishment of a stronger relationship. Currently, the Second Civilization Area is on the brink of losing stability due to the aggressive actions of the Gra Valkas Empire, making negotiation impossible. Consequently, dealing with this threat requires the thorough dismantling of its formidable military force and the liberation of the territories it has acquired.
By stabilizing the Second Civilization Area, Japan's position will become relatively secure, but it's not without its challenges. Establishing Japan's hegemony relies on cooperation and shared values with neighboring countries. Conversely, deteriorating relations with neighboring countries leading to severed ties would jeopardize Japan's hegemony. Currently, Japan's position is far from solid. This means that if given the right trigger, the neighboring countries, which are currently compliant, could easily turn against Japan. Therefore, Japan must not neglect its allied nations. In case of any unrest among them, Japan must actively mediate. Furthermore, if a power emerges genuinely seeking to challenge Japan's hegemony, everyone must unite to counter the threat. This method, akin to the robust system established by the United States in the old world, was also adopted by Japan.
However, there's a crucial difference from the old world — the effectiveness of direct military intervention. In the old world, advancing troops to acquire territory is deemed aggression and invites global condemnation. Yet, in this world, it's a common practice, with nations boasting vast territories gained through conquest. Hence, in this world, hesitation to use military force when necessary is a luxury we can't afford. In fact, the reluctance to employ force led to misjudgments during the Japanese-Parpaldian War, where Japan was perceived as weak due to its attempts at negotiation, leading to easy military subjugation. Similarly, the Gra Valkas Empire, a newcomer like Japan, has gained significant influence primarily due to its effective military actions.
Therefore, if necessary, we must not hesitate to resort to military action. While using military force to coerce compliance was considered a poor strategy in the old world, here, it's one of the most effective methods. Failing to grasp this point might lead us to repeat the tragedy of the Kingdom of Fenn. To prevent such a scenario, we must understand this world and wield our power wisely.
Japan's power is unparalleled in this world, but it's not omnipotent. We must recognize that our livelihoods and safety hinge on a delicate balance.
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I referred to a certain explanatory video.
- Ishiwara