"The thing called war doesn't often go as planned," reflected Admiral Husband Kimmel, Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Fleet, faced with developments that deviated significantly from expectations since the outbreak of the war.
On December 7, 1941, Japan declared war on the Allied powers, including the United States and the United Kingdom, directing its aggression towards the Philippines and Malaya. However, this was as expected. While some analysts had predicted that the Japanese military might surprise attack Pearl Harbor with their mobile fleet at the outset of the war, it seems the Japanese also had a sense of common sense. That did not happen.
On the other hand, what was unexpected was how vulnerable the Allied forces turned out to be.
The American air force in the Philippines suffered a decisive defeat on the first day of the war, courtesy of the Japanese carrier-based aircraft. In the waters off Malaya, the cutting-edge battleship Prince of Wales and the battlecruiser Repulse were simultaneously sunk by the Japanese mobile fleet—an unbelievable turn of events. The two ships, Prince of Wales and Repulse, had their anti-aircraft weapons destroyed by bombs dropped by enemy dive bombers. Simultaneously, escort destroyers were also reportedly overwhelmed. Subjected to a concentrated torpedo attack, the two ships had their legs cut out from under them. In the end, pursuing destroyers from the Japanese fleet delivered the final blow to Force Z with torpedoes. Even with the latest battleships, having only two capital ships against the overwhelming force of the Japanese fleet was likely an impossible task.
"But the Japanese military's advance ends here."
The aircraft carriers Enterprise and Lexington, transporting aircraft to bases on Wake Island and Midway Atoll, joined the battleships of the Pacific Fleet. There was one more carrier, the Saratoga, in the Pacific Fleet, but there was no intention of waiting for her. The Saratoga was currently undergoing maintenance in San Diego, and waiting for her to join could risk missing the strategic timing. Currently, in the Philippines, a total of five Sōryū-class and Chitose-class carriers are wreaking havoc. The American air force in the Philippines is desperately resisting, but the tide has already turned decisively. If the Pacific Fleet hesitated to deploy, there was a fear that these carrier fleets would retaliate from the Philippines to Wake Island. In exchange for the reinforcement of the Saratoga, if Japan gained an additional five regular and light aircraft carriers, it would be a completely unfavorable situation. At present, there is only one carrier, Chitose-class, near Wake Island. Two carriers, Enterprise and Lexington, should be sufficient.
In addition, Japan's military strength, apart from aircraft carriers, was also likely in a difficult situation. They had to deploy a large number of vessels in the southern theater of operations. In that theater, it is known that two Sōryū-class carriers and seven to eight Myōkō or Takao-class heavy cruisers are in action. If that is the case, there are only four Mogami-class light cruisers immediately available, excluding six battleships, as powerful ships.
On the other hand, there was also some intriguing information.
There was an analysis suggesting that the four main vessels built under the Circle 3 Plan shipbuilding project might have already been completed or commissioned. Based on the budget scale, it was considered that these four main vessels would be battleships of around 35.000 to 40.000 tons. If these vessels were around 35.000 to 40.000 tons, it was anticipated that they would be equipped with 40 cm guns, likely with eight or nine of them. Considering that the Washington and North Carolina, constructed around the same time, had been in service for a long time, it seemed reasonable for Kimmel to assume that Japan's main vessels were completed and already operational.
If that were the case, the Japanese fleet would possess six battleships equipped with 40 cm guns. With a total of ten battleships, they would surpass the Pacific Fleet. Moreover, since the Colorado, which carries 40 cm guns on their side, is currently under maintenance and unavailable, the actual strength would be 10 versus 8, putting the Americans at a clear disadvantage. According to the information Kimmel gathered from relevant sources, if Japan's new battleships were around 35.000 to 40.000 tons, their combat capability would be somewhere between the Colorado-class and the North Carolina-class. Although it was a somewhat rough analysis, suggesting they were stronger than the outdated battleships of the United States but not comparable to the new battleships, it was not an entirely unacceptable scenario. The main guns of the North Carolina-class had powerful and heavy shells, even though they were 40 cm guns. If they simply compared the weight of the shells, they would rival other countries' 43 cm guns. Well, this was a hypothetical discussion assuming the existence of 43 cm guns and the like.
On the other hand, there were those, like intelligence officer Commander Edwin Layton, who suspected that the four main vessels the Japanese Navy was constructing might not be battleships but, in fact, aircraft carriers. Their basis for this suspicion was Japan's history of reducing battleship construction quotas and increasing aircraft carrier construction quotas during the London Naval Treaty. However, Kimmel thought this was unlikely. The Imperial Japanese Navy currently has eight Sōryū and Chitose class ships, but only six battleships, all of which were old. Additionally, the Japanese Navy is applying for a budget under the pretext of replacing the Fusō-class. With ten battleships and eight aircraft carriers versus six battleships and twelve aircraft carriers, it was clear which side had the better balance.
Kimmel believed that if the Japanese were to come out to Wake Island to oppose the Pacific Fleet, its strength would be at least six battleships, and at worst, ten. In the worst case, it would be a formidable enemy with around fifty 40 cm and thirty-two 36 cm guns. However, the Pacific Fleet is also a formidable force, equipped with sixteen 40 cm guns and sixty-eight 36 cm guns. Although they lacked in gun caliber, in terms of overall turret count, they were equal to or even surpass Japan's battleship fleet. Moreover, the skill and training of the personnel undoubtedly favor the Pacific Fleet.
Furthermore, the naval power of the Pacific Fleet overwhelmingly dominates in aircraft carriers, cruisers, and destroyers.
If there is an exploitable weakness in Japan's fleet, that would be the point. According to Admiral William Halsey, commander of the carrier task force, the torpedo squadrons of the Enterprise and Lexington could easily defeat two battleships. Given that Japan's two carriers played a crucial role in sinking the Prince of Wales and Repulse in the waters off Malaya, Halsey's statement is not mere bravado. Well, for Kimmel, a staunch believer in the doctrine of big ships and big guns, it might be a bit complicated. Moreover, most of the cruisers on their side are either heavy cruisers or the formidable light cruisers of the Brooklyn-class. They overwhelm Japan's cruiser forces, which can only deploy four Mogami-class light cruisers in terms of both quantity and quality. Even the destroyers are relatively new and well-equipped.
The Pacific Fleet was set to sortie from here, rescuing the Allied military personnel and civilians who were bravely holding out on Wake Island while annihilating the Combined Fleet, thus paving the way for the relief of the Philippines. With ample strength and the most inspiring situation for a military person—to rescue comrades in arms—the morale of the personnel was at its peak. By this time, Kimmel was already convinced of the victory of the Pacific Fleet.