Chapter 5 - Can We Win?

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To lighten the oppressive atmosphere created by grim topics like suicide attacks and new bombs that could devastate cities in a single blow, Vice Minister Yamamoto tried to shift the conversation toward ships. Yamamoto had invested substantial funds in the Imperial Navy's shipbuilding, which heavily influenced its plans. Unimaginably large battleships and armored aircraft carriers were being discussed. However, before they could delve into that, the earnest Vice Admiral Koga questioned Yamamoto about how they intended to avoid or navigate the world war expected to erupt in a few years. Yamamoto's answer was blunt:

"It can't be helped."

For a moment, Koga couldn't understand the meaning. It was hard to believe that a man destined to be the future Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet, responsible for national defense, could say such a thing.

"Let me ask you instead—do you genuinely believe Japan can avoid war with the United States, or even win against them?"

Yamamoto asked quietly, with a faint smile as Koga's expression hardened. Koga reflected. The man in front of him had once risked his life to oppose the Tripartite Pact and the war with the United States. However, he was almost entirely powerless. Koga was not privy to the intricacies of the strategies the United States, and behind them, the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, and China, employed to drive Japan into war. Yet he could imagine the intense diplomatic exchanges that must have occurred.

Even so, if Japan had been united in its desire to avoid war, it might have been possible to avoid conflict through a second round of patient endurance. But that was not the case. Many desired war. Newspapers promoted war to boost circulation, and the public, stirred up, clamored for the defeat of the US and UK. Numerous individuals in the zaibatsu, munitions industries, and among capitalists also favored war. Regrettably, many military personnel, who should have been the foremost advocates for peace, saw war as an opportunity for personal advancement and welcomed its outbreak. Politicians and bureaucrats were filled with fools who believed Japan could overthrow the US and UK and establish a new order in Asia, ignorant of their country's true capabilities and unable to distinguish between dreams and reality.

None of them considered the possibility of Japan losing. They couldn't grasp the overwhelming power of the United States. Trying to reason with such people was futile. Facts sometimes lose to delusions. So, instead of avoiding war, how about fighting the US and finding a way to win? Impossible. There was no way to feel confident in victory. The disparity in national power was too great. Maybe, back during the Russo-Japanese War, the national leadership might have had the ability to bridge such a gap. Japan had, after all, managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against Russia despite a daunting power imbalance.

But the times had changed. In the era of total war, victory or defeat hinged on industrial and economic power, which directly reflected national strength. The differences in technological prowess, skilled personnel, and the broad industrial base were too vast between Japan and the US. Unlike Russia, the US was unlikely to experience a revolution or upheaval, so espionage efforts to destabilize it were futile. Neither avoiding conflict by surrendering nor fighting and winning was possible. Essentially, they were trapped. Now, Koga understood why Yamamoto said, "It can't be helped." It really couldn't.

"Don't worry. I'll take responsibility for ending the war," Yamamoto said quietly to the now-silent Koga.

"It's simple. We just need to win. That's all."

Koga was taken aback by Yamamoto's unexpected and seemingly contradictory words. It didn't seem like something a man so acutely aware of the disparity between Japan and the US would say. Koga intended to ask about the real meaning behind Yamamoto's words. However, oblivious to Koga's thoughts, Yamamoto steered the conversation toward his own preferred topic.

"Today, I visited the Navy Ministry and had Ugaki relieved of his duties as captain of the Yakumo. I apologize for proceeding without consulting you, the future superior of the training fleet."

Koga bore no resentment towards Yamamoto for acting without his input but wondered why he did it. Yamamoto explained that he simply wanted to keep Ugaki close at hand. Hearing this, Koga felt a bit exasperated with Yamamoto, who, despite his knowledge of the future, continued to act in his usual unhurried manner.

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