The Austrian Aroma (LSD, #5)

3. Superstition

Superstition

"The Zodiac is not science, Shirley. It's superstition, like writings on a wall, broken mirrors and walking under ladders causes seven years of bad luck. If the Zodiac was science, then every twin would have exactly the same character and the same life as her twin sister or brother. I know two twin brothers, Hans and Franz, and they are as different as two middle-class cars from different brands."

"When you don't believe in things because you don't understand them, then you'll suffer. That's not superstition; it's a lack of knowledge. Do you believe the sun will come up tomorrow or do you know the sun will come up tomorrow?"

"I know the sun will come up tomorrow. I know how the solar system works; it's physics, predictable, repeating itself as long as no external factor disturbs the balance. There is a chance the sun will explode tonight, but that chance is rather small as it hasn't happened during the last 5 billion years, and there is a chance a meteor will hit the Earth before sunrise, but that chance isn't much bigger. So, yes, I can predict with over 99,99% of certainty that the sun will come up tomorrow. That's not belief; it's knowledge like only science can provide."

"Lovely. You admit that tomorrow's sunrise isn't 100% certain. Your science is nothing but belief in statistics; you follow the Religion of the Big Numbers. How big is the chance that the economy will improve when governments lower the interest rates? Economy is science too. How big is the chance that a certain treatment will cure a patient? Modern healthcare is science too. How big is the chance that two white panthers will get a black variety between their offspring? Biology is science too. What you call «science» is nothing more than the product of statistics and experiments. Astrology is exactly the same, the product of statistics and experiments."

Shirley has a surprising way of looking at the world around her. All my life, I firmly believed I knew how things worked, but she drops a few words, and all my foundations turn into quicksand.

I have no idea about biology or healthcare, but I do have a degree in Economy. When governments lower the interest rate, they hope (hope is not scientific) that consumers will get less stimulation to save money and more to spend it. Consumption = Production, which results in more work and a growing economy. But when interest rates rise, consumers will save more and consume less. Saving = Investment. Banks will not sit on those savings. They will grand loans, to companies that invest in better quality and higher production, which results in... more work and a growing economy... Rostov! I took it for granted that the economy behaves as governments predict, but Shirley is right here: it's belief, religion, and not scientific at all.

"You're right again, Shirley. The true method of knowledge is experiment. I'm interested. I'm listening. Convince me."

Shirley smiles away my last doubts, grabs my arm and, while we walk on, she explains: "When I tell someone «you're Taurus, so you're reliable, hard-working and honest», she'll feel proud of these three good characteristics. She'll even tell others: «Hey, I'm Taurus, so you can rely on me, I'm the best employee you can get, and I'll never lie to you either». She actually becomes more reliable, hard-working and honest, because she believes in horself, and in the Higher Powers of the Zodiac, which blessed hor with honesty, productivity and reliability. That's 100% science. It's called «a self-fulfilling prophecy». It works perfectly to change other people and make them feel better about themselves. What was your line some time ago? «You can't change other people; all you can change is yourself»? Well, with astrology, you can change other people and make the world a better place. So don't be sceptical like a Cancer, my dear Watson, but try to learn from it."

How does Shirley know my secret thoughts during my mission in Spain with Chelsea? This woman... She seems to see things she can't possibly know. But I don't let her look behind my professional poker face. I'm a spy. It's my job to get information, not to give it away: "You are correct about every single thing except one: I'm not a Cancer."