Anabasis of the Northern Sea

31. The Search for an Averted Soviet-Japanese War

Despite the deteriorating relations between Japan and the Soviet Union, the Japanese government continued to explore the possibility of avoiding war internally. However, with the achievement of a five-year extension of the Japan-Soviet Fisheries Treaty and the sale of the North Sakhalin oil fields, the Soviet Union had become even more indifferent to diplomatic negotiations with Japan.

Currently, there were no significant diplomatic issues between the two countries, and Foreign Minister Molotov had completely ceased to respond to Ambassador Naotake Satō's requests for talks.

While Japan had numerous issues it sought resolution from the Soviet Union, such as the inspection problems in the Sea of Japan, strengthening enforcement in the Northern Pacific fisheries, and the occupation of the Guangfeng Islands located on the Manchuria-Soviet border, the Soviet side showed no willingness to engage in negotiations.

The Soviet stance was that inspections in the Sea of Japan and the enforcement of Northern Pacific fisheries were carried out in accordance with Soviet domestic law. Similarly, they regarded the occupation of islands in the Heilong River as part of their security activities within their territory, thus denying any diplomatic issue.

"It seems that the United States still has room for negotiation, unlike us."

Prime Minister Katsunoshin Yamanashi lamented during a cabinet meeting held at the Prime Minister's Office.

"In this situation, we have no choice but to confront the Soviet Union with a determination not to shy away from war."

Following the cabinet meeting on April 16, Army Minister Hideki Tōjō maintained his stance that easing tensions with the Soviet Union was difficult.

"Of course, by determination not to shy away from war, I do not mean initiating hostilities from our side. It simply means being fully prepared to repel any Soviet invasion of Manchuria, Karafuto, the Chishima Islands, or Hokkaidō."

However, Tōjō also had no intention of declaring war on the Soviet Union from Japan's side. With the recommendation from the Kwantung Army, the Army had shifted its strategy towards a defensive and protracted approach regarding a potential war with the Soviet Union. Certainly, it did not mean completely refraining from offensive operations, but at least offensive operations by the Kwantung Army were hardly considered within the Army by this time.

"Could it be that the Soviet Union's hardline stance against Japan serves a purpose we haven't yet grasped?" Yukio Sakurauchi, the Minister of Railways, said with a puzzled expression.

"The Soviet Union has already regained its interests in northern Karafuto. They have agreed to a five-year extension of the Japan-Soviet Fisheries Treaty and have shown no willingness to engage in further negotiations with Japan. So, it's hard to imagine they want to extract any concessions from our country."

During the previous cabinet meeting, he had tried to emphasize the diplomatic achievement of the five-year extension of the Japan-Soviet Fisheries Treaty achieved by the former president, Chūji Machida, but had been denied by Army Minister Tōjō and Foreign Minister Yoshida. Frankly, he felt that the Constitutional Democratic Party had lost face.

However, beyond that, during the previous cabinet meeting, one couldn't help but feel the further decline of party politics. Sakurauchi found himself in a position where he had to defend the flame of party politics within a cabinet where more than half of the ministers were military personnel. Therefore, he felt the need to increase his presence in the cabinet by speaking up whenever possible.

"Perhaps Stalin desires ports that allow free access to the open ocean, akin to those of the former Russian Empire," Foreign Minister Yoshida remarked, glancing briefly toward Navy Minister Hori.