Introduction To Reasoning

Chapter Two - Observation, Conclusions, Occam's Razor and the Scientific Method

                       

            Since primary school, the scientific method was meticulously ingrained in nearly every child. Which states that based on a question, you engage in background analysis, after which you construct a hypothesis, followed by the acquiring of data, and then recording such results.
            The formulation of conjecture before the gathering of data is ineffective. It makes far more sense to gather data, analyse it, then draw a conclusion. During the observation of people and situations, it is important not to theorise beforehand, lest biases form and result in lapses of judgement.             
            Much can be read in the way a person dresses. By which one can accurately deduce a person's occupation, pay check, habits, hobbies, sex life, health, and interests. It's simply a matter of observation, and conclusion with the use of Occam's Razor, which states that the simplest scenario that fits every fact is probably the correct one. Or in other words, when you near hoofbeats, think horse instead of zebra, as the first one is far more likely. Of course, often times, solutions to problems aren't simple, as only the blindingly ignorant would go as far as to assume that the tallest mountain that they've seen is also the tallest in the world. However, stick to the simplest solution that also fits every fact, though often you'll find an absence of other possible solutions period. This is, in fact a method of logic called Abductive Reasoning(more on that later).
            I've found in my considered experience, that it is necessary to be familiar with precisely two hundred and fourteen different types of perfume, from which one can deduce a woman's occupation, the occupation of her spouse, her intentions, what she'd been doing, as well as the state of her relationship, be that she has one, since some perfumes are more expensive and since they vary in appropriateness depending on what the situation calls for. Similarly, I find being that there are forty different types of soaps one should recognise, from Axe, to Dove, to Heads and Shoulders. One can identify a parent from such scent, as well as, say, an office worker, an athlete, or someone who travels around often. Being that athletes lean towards certain soaps than others, and someone who travels will find hotel shampoo to their liking. Of course this is not always certain, and it's important to draw conclusions in clusters, rather than taking one of these things and using it to draw a conclusion.
            Additionally, necessity dictates familiarity with fourteen types of deodorant, seventy-seven types of hair pomade and gels, and forty-two different types of hand soaps as well as the statistics upon their purchase(as different companies might buy certain hand soaps, for example at truck stops and construction lots, a rough, gritty sort of hand soap is found, more often than not in my observations). Furthermore, there are seven hundred and twenty-seven types of dirt and soil one should be able to identify, upon which one can induce the regional trajectory of the wearer(clothes, shoes etc). For instance, if you know it was recently raining in a certain area, and the person of which is the object of your inductions has dry mud on their shoes, the location of the wearer is significantly reduced(sufficiently illustrating the importance of having access to national weather reports).

Note, it is important once again to work in CLUSTERS, rather than singular observations