Phase 02 - Gathering Dark Clouds

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Dark clouds, it seems, always arrive as suddenly as they come.

In early July 1939, the military conflict between Japan and the Republic of China was the first event in the form of the outbreak of the Second Shanghai Incident.

The Kuomintang, led by Chiang Kai-shek, which had been restrained due to its relationship with Germany, abruptly shifted its allegiance towards the United States, the Soviet Union, and even Britain and France, cutting ties with Germany's expansionist diplomacy that was happening after the Munich Agreement. In essence, they attempted to disengage from the camp that was being referred to as the Axis at that time.

From around 1936, a large quantity of weapons had been flowing into China from countries like the US and the Soviet Union, significantly expanding the apparent military strength of the Republic of China's army. The Soviet Union, in particular, had provided China with weapons and ammunition worth 250 million dollars through various channels. In fact, more than half of the weapons acquired by the Republic of China's army after 1937 were of Soviet origin. Furthermore, in place of Germany and Japan, many Soviet military advisors had also infiltrated.

The reason the Soviet Union supported China to this extent was to contain Japan using the Republic of China and keep it tied up in Asia. For other Western countries, it served as a check against Japan, which had gone a bit too far. No country really wanted a war or a large-scale conflict, but rather they all aimed for deterrence, demonstration, intimidation, and coercion. At most, they hoped that Japan would experience some hardship from the attacks by the Kuomintang's army if it got out of hand.

However, Chiang Kai-shek of the Republic of China, with the support of foreign countries and confidence in his facade of military power, suddenly turned his attention towards Japan.

Specifically, in the short term, he planned to enhance national prestige by expelling Japanese forces from Shanghai. In the long term, he envisioned creating turmoil between China and Japan, further escalating it into a confrontation and war with other foreign countries, ultimately using other countries to regain Manchuria. In a sense, it can be seen as a very Chinese way of thinking.

And the reason for taking action at this time was because he believed that his own military had been greatly strengthened by military support from the US and the Soviet Union. In every sense, this partially empowered military force had drawn out a more assertive stance from Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang towards Japan.

Furthermore, almost simultaneously with their actions in Shanghai, both China and Japan had deployed large armies in the area that had been a demilitarized zone near the Great Wall.

It was rather natural for Japan to significantly raise its alert level. And the sudden action by the Republic of China was not predicted by any country. As a result, every country found themselves reacting belatedly.

. . .

The origin of the incident was a shooting incident involving a Japanese officer and the shooting of a Chinese security guard, but the Japanese concluded it as a staged event by the Republic of China. Japan also provided detailed information about the incident to other foreign countries and took a stern stance towards China. Similar acts of terrorism had already occurred in North China, and while assuming that the chaos would not escalate further, Japan was not willing to back down.

From the Chinese side, they were always anticipating Japan's high-handed actions and changed their attitude repeatedly while advancing their own preparations in the meantime. They conducted active lobbying activities with countries hostile to Japan and issued self-serving statements interpreting the facts in their favor.

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