Before 24 Billion and Counting

Chapter 4 Part 1 Towards London. A fleeting friend is slain.

Fifteen journalists came, and I did the introductions. 

The journalists were aggrieved that I had usurped the lead in the publicity, and in effect asked who the hell I was. I used the answer to explain that the scientific team needed the support of a media savvy person in view of the unwarranted hype that already surrounded the topic. The observatory also wanted the information that was publicised to be accurate, therefore an authorised presentation video would be available from my publishing company. This caused even more dissension, but I held out on the basis of the necessary accuracy. I mentally crossed my fingers that my team had taken my strict instructions to only edit out unprofessional ers ums or hesitations. 

Then for the third time Jacob, Will and Ellen presented the Rosetta comet, and its wild orbit. By now they were getting quite slick, and as planned I left the camera set up, so the whole conference was recorded. 

The presentation left very little unsaid, the visual aids made everything self-explanatory, and the few questions that came were very predictable, and asked the same thing in various ways. How accurate was the forecast? What were the possible outcomes? 

Then, from the New York Times reporter, "You say that within the limits of your current calculation the comet could exit Jupiter in any direction. Does that include a close approach or collision with Earth?" 

We had agreed the answer to this, and whilst I had deliberately kept the team away from using written answers which always look contrived, I hoped that Jacob would remember the exact words, and resist the temptation dramatise his favourite topic of the cosmos. 

"You have to remember that the probability of any one configuration of orbit being achieved is one in many millions. If you limit that to a given intercept course with a point moving at a very great speed, in between which are several large bodies all having an influence to divert that course, you end up with a probability which is immeasurably low." 

Mentally I said, "Good lad, now STOP." And to his great credit Jacob folded his brawny arms and regarded the middle distance. 

But the reporter didn't let go, "So although it's a low probability it could happen - a collision with Earth I mean." 

I said quickly, "I think you had best regard the chance of Rosetta coming near the earth as being the same as that of any other comet or large meteor which we can't see because at the moment it's too far away. There is an infinitely better chance of being blown away by obsolete ICBM's." 

Jacob looked at me, surprised at my intervention. 

From that point on the conference wound down to photographing people and the telescope. They liked Ellen for she talked and photographed well, although with great skill she managed to say very little. Jacob was withdrawn, and uncomfortable with this audience, but took the conversation on to the general programme of the observatory. Will stuck to his mathematical vocabulary which soon made the journalists lose interest. Me they regarded as an interloper, and apart from seeking the route by which they could obtain the presentation transcript, I was largely ignored. 

As agreed I gave the TV station reporter a copy of the tape of the news conference, and by eight they'd all gone. 

Jacob said, at a post mortem over coffee, "How come you answered the supplementary from the Times?" 

"I can afford to be in error by some, but you can't and I didn't want you going a bit further than your first answer. Even if you had said you hadn't anything to add to your first answer that reporter could have headlined 'Comet Rosetta might hit earth'. As it is, I hope that he can only say that a comet could hit earth, and that's been true since the dawn of time."