The End of Eden (Water Worlds 1)

Chapter 6

6

The news about Apophis was not a surprise, but it was the first time I remember feeling deeply afraid.

We'd heard about the asteroid for years, of course. Ever since it was discovered, people watched it very carefully each time it slid past Earth on its own course around the sun. Apophis anime got more views on the Record than anything, and not just from children. Cartoons were the best way to reach the great masses of semi-literate adults, too.

One day, Mother was scanning the Record for daily news, like she always did, and stumbled on a report in progress about the asteroid. I was attracted to anything about space and science, so I stepped over to the table and sat down next to her. She shifted her pad so I could share the view.

A news reader said that if an asteroid the size of Apophis struck the Earth, it could take out an area as large as Manchuria. Not an extinction-level event, she explained, but a nearly three hundred meter rock like that would certainly get the planet's attention. And if it hit a city, well, it and all its people for hundreds of kilometers in all directions would likely vaporize within seconds.

Then they played a very good video about asteroid impacts throughout history. Like the one that made the Moon and the one that that killed the dinosaurs. Now, Father's grand plan to use comets to terraform the inner Solar System made a little more sense to me. The amount of power one could unleash was immense.

The reader went on to explain that Apophis hadn't even been discovered until the beginning of the century. But since then much data had been acquired, and most scientists now agreed there would be a clean miss on the next pass in the spring of 2029.

"Nothing to worry about. Go on with your lives," she concluded. "Better odds you'd get winning the lottery." And then an advert popped up, selling tickets for the National Lottery.

I took a deep breath.

That's only two years from now. I thought. I'll be fifteen when Apophis comes.

Father was one of the first scientists in the whole world to measure subtle changes in the path of Apophis during its approach. He explained it to me as we gathered for breakfast one day. Well, he explained it to Mother and I did my best to follow.

Joo Chen, his hat on backwards, was tapping away on his pad, earbuds in, pretending not to listen, as usual. He was almost nine but trying to act much older.

"We know that there's no chance of a strike in 2029, although it will pass dangerously close. There is, however, a small chance the asteroid could actually strike the Earth in 2036..." He paused, for effect, "...if it hits the keyhole."

The conversation got Joo Chen's attention, too. He popped out his ear buds and turned to Father.

"Keyhole?" he asked.

So he was listening, I thought.

"There is a specific zone in space, just over a half kilometer square. Think of it as a very large football goal. If Apophis passes through this keyhole during its pass in 2029, hitting the goal, there is a one-in-forty thousand chance of a strike somewhere on Earth when the asteroid approaches again in 2036. That is not very great odds against, in the cosmic scheme of things."

The mention of odds made me do a mental comparison. I was good with numbers, but even a child knew a one-in-forty thousand chance seemed a much different risk than the one-in-seven billion of the lottery.

"Are we in danger?" Joo Chen asked.

The worried look that clouded his face was most unlike him, and it startled me a bit. He always seemed so fearless, but I was beginning to suspect much of that was an act to impress the many, spoiled Chinese only boys in his school.