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The Future of Intelligence

It's hard to predict the ultimate uses of a new technology. As we've seen
throughout this book, brains make predictions by analogy to the past. So our
natural inclination is to imagine that a new technology will be used to do the same
kinds of things as a previous technology. We imagine using a new tool to do
something familiar, only faster, more efficiently, or more cheaply.

Examples are abundant. People called the railroad the "iron horse" and the
automobile the "horseless carriage." For decades the telephone was viewed in the
context of the telegraph, something that should be used only to communicate
important news or emergencies; it wasn't until the 1920s that people started using
it casually. Photography was at first used as a new form of portraiture. And motion
pictures were conceptualized as a variation on stage plays, which is why movie
theaters had retracting curtains over the screens for much of the twentieth
century.

Yet the ultimate uses of a new technology are often unexpected and more far-
reaching than our imaginations can at first grasp. The telephone has evolved into a
wireless voice and data communications network permitting any two people on the
planet to communicate with each other, no matter where they are, via voice, text,
and images. The transistor was invented by Bell Labs in 1947. It was instantly
clear to people that the device was a breakthrough, but the initial applications
were just improvements on old applications: transistors replaced vacuum tubes.
This led to smaller and more reliable radios and computers, which was important
and exciting in its day, but the main differences were the size and reliability of the
machines. The transistor's most revolutionary applications weren't discovered until
later. A period of gradual innovation was necessary before anyone could conceive
of the integrated circuit, the microprocessor, the digital signal processor, or the
memory chip. The microprocessor, likewise, was first developed, in 1970, with
desktop calculators in mind. Again, the first applications were just replacements of
existing technologies. The electronic calculator was a replacement for the
mechanical desktop calculator. Microprocessors were also clear candidates to
replace the solenoids that were then used in certain kinds of industrial control,
such as switching traffic lights. However, it was years before the true power of the
microprocessor began to be manifest. No one at the time could foresee the
modern personal computer, the cell phone, the Internet, the Global Positioning
System, or any other piece of today's bread-and-butter information technology.

By the same token, we would be foolish to think we can predict the revolutionary
applications of brainlike memory systems. I fully expect these intelligent machines
to improve life in all sorts of ways. We can be sure of it. But predicting the future
of technology more than a few years out is impossible. To appreciate this you need

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only read some of the absurd prognostications futurists have confidently made
over the years. In the 1950s, it was predicted that by the year 2000 we'd all have
atomic reactors in our basements and take our vacations on the moon. But as long
as we keep these cautionary tales in mind, there's a lot to be gained by
speculating about what intelligent machines will be like. At a minimum, there are
certain broad and useful conclusions we can draw about the future.

The questions are intriguing ones. Can we build intelligent machines, and, if so,
what will they look like? Will they be closer to the humanlike robots seen in
popular fiction, the black or beige box of a personal computer, or something else?
How will they be used? Is this a dangerous technology that can harm us or
threaten our personal liberties? What are the obvious applications for intelligent
machines, and is there any way we can know what the fantastic applications will
be? What will the ultimate impact of intelligent machines be on our lives?

Can We Build Intelligent Machines?

Yes, we can build intelligent machines, but they may not be what you expect.