A BEAUTIFUL MATHA BEAUTIFUL MATH
JOHN NASH,
A BEAUTIFUL MATHA BEAUTIFUL MATH
JOHN NASH,
GAME THEORY,
AND THE
MODERN QUEST
FOR A CODE
OF NATURE

TOM SIEGFRIED

JOSEPH HENRY PRESS
Washington, D.C.


Joseph Henry Press • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001

The Joseph Henry Press, an imprint of the National Academies Press, was
created with the goal of making books on science, technology, and health
more widely available to professionals and the public. Joseph Henry was one of
the founders of the National Academy of Sciences and a leader in early American
science.

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this
volume are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
National Academy of Sciences or its affiliated institutions.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Siegfried, Tom, 1950


A beautiful math : John Nash, game theory, and the modern quest for a code
of nature / Tom Siegfried. - 1st ed.

p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-10192-1 (hardback) - ISBN 0-309-65928-0 (pdfs) 1.
Game theory. I. Title.

QA269.S574 2006

519.3-dc22

2006012394

Copyright 2006 by Tom Siegfried. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America.


Preface


Shortly after 9/11, a Russian scientist named Dmitri Gusev proposed
an explanation for the origin of the name Al Qaeda. He
suggested that the terrorist organization took its name from Isaac
Asimov's famous 1950s science fiction novels known as the Foundation
Trilogy. After all, he reasoned, the Arabic word "qaeda"
means something like "base" or "foundation." And the first novel in
Asimov's trilogy, Foundation, apparently was titled "al-Qaida" in an
Arabic translation.

In Asimov's books, "Foundation" referred to an organization
dedicated to salvaging a decaying galactic empire. The empire was
hopeless, destined to crumble into chaos, leaving civilization in
ruins for 30,000 years. Foreseeing the inevitability of the empire's
demise, one man devised a plan to truncate the coming era of
darkness to a mere millennium. His strategy was to establish a
"foundation" of scholars who would preserve human knowledge
for civilization's eventual rebirth.

At least that's what he told the empire's authorities.

In fact, Asimov's hero, a mathematician named Hari Seldon,
created a community of scientists devoted to manipulating the future.
Seldon actually formed two foundations-one in a remote
but known locale (sort of like Afghanistan), the other in a mystery
location referred to only with riddles. Foundation I participated
openly in the affairs of the galaxy. Foundation II operated surreptitiously,
intervening at key points in history to nudge events along
Seldon's chosen path.

Seldon's plan for controlling human affairs was based on a

iii


PREFACE

mathematical system that he invented called psychohistory. It enabled
Seldon to predict political, economic, and social trends; foresee
the rise and fall of governments; and anticipate the onset of
wars and periods of peace.

I don't think Osama bin Laden is Hari Seldon. But it's not so

far-fetched to believe that the organizers of the real Al Qaeda

perceived Western civilization as an empire in decay. Or that they

anointed themselves as society's saviors, hoping to manipulate

events in a way that would lead to a new world order more to their

liking. So perhaps they adopted some of Hari Seldon's strategies.

(Certainly Osama bin Laden's occasional taped messages are eerily

similar to Seldon's video appearances from time to time, prepared

before his death for delivery decades or even centuries later.)

Of course, any such link to Asimov changes nothing about
terrorism. Al Qaeda gains no justification for atrocity from any
connection to science fiction. And frankly, the similarities seem
rather superficial. Had the terrorists really studied Foundation, they
would have noticed Asimov's assertion that "violence is the last
refuge of the incompetent."

But in fact, Asimov's series did inspire some real-world imitators:
not terrorists, but scientists-scientists seeking the secrets of
Hari Seldon's psychohistory. If there is a real-life Hari Seldon, it is
not Osama bin Laden, but John Forbes Nash.

Nash's life, chronicled so engagingly by Sylvia Nasar in A Beautiful