Scaredy Cat

Chapter 9: The Odds

DARE TO BE GREAT – Step 8: Play the Odds

As you work your way through the risk-taking phase of the Morris Method, it's important to remember that risk is a very subjective concept. What one person perceives as a chancy undertaking, another might perceive as a sure thing. What one person judges to be unacceptably dangerous, another might see as perfectly safe. So the challenge becomes defining the risk and finding a way to measure it objectively. After all, we're not in this to get ourselves killed, are we?

Whenever you consider taking a risk, you should look at three factors: first, how serious is the potential negative outcome -- that is, what's the worst that can happen? Second, how likely is it to happen? And third, how good is the potential positive outcome -- that is, what is the reward? For example, if you are considering painting your bedroom purple, the worst that can happen is that you spend a few hours and a few dollars on something you hate. And in fact, that's not all that serious an outcome, is it, because you can simply paint over it. Now, how likely is it that you will hate it? That's something you'll have to decide for yourself, but if you like the colour in a piece of fabric, and you like it on a paint chip, and you like it in pictures in the home decorating magazines, then it's unlikely you'll hate it on the wall. What's the potential reward? If all goes well, you'll create a warm, creative, and passionate atmosphere in your bedroom -- an ambience that pleases you every time you walk in the room. Seems like a risk worth taking, n'est-ce pas?

Now look at a different risk: skydiving, for example. What's the worst that can happen? You thunder in. (That's skydiving jargon for 'hit the dirt and die'.) Pretty serious stuff. But how likely is it to happen? Not very. According to first jump statistics, there is a small probability that you will injure your ankle on your first jump, and a less-than-miniscule probability that you will die. The rewards of making a skydive? An adrenalin rush, and bragging rights for years to come. You decide. How about something like deep sea diving, or capping a fire on an oil rig? Activities like these have a higher probability of injury or death -- serious outcomes by anyone's standards -- but the financial rewards are high enough that some people feel it's worth the risk.

To simplify your risk-taking decisions, you might want to use the following formula: 1. Weigh the seriousness of the risk. If the action could result in inconvenience or embarrassment, take 1 point for low risk. If the action could result in heartache, financial difficulties, a career setback, or minor injury, take 2 points for moderate risk. If the action could result in financial ruin, criminal charges, serious injury or death, take 3 points for high risk. 2. Now determine the probability factor. If the potential negative outcome is unlikely to occur, say a less than 25% chance, take 1 point for low probability of failure. If the negative outcome has a reasonable likelihood of occurring, say a 25-75% chance, take 2 points for moderate probability of failure. And if the negative outcome is very likely to occur, say a 75% or more chance, then take 3 points for high probability of failure. 3. Now add your risk factor and your probability factor.

If you have a total score of 2, (low risk, low probability of negative outcome) then you should certainly undertake this action. If you have a score of 6, (high risk, high probability of negative outcome) then you should probably not undertake the action. And if your score is 3, 4, or 5, you should consider the potential rewards and weigh them against the risk. Be alert to the fact that you may tend to misuse this formula to get out of doing things that could be very worthwhile -- be careful not to exaggerate the risks and belittle the rewards of the activity you're contemplating.

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Sergeant seemed to recognize Everly's distress; he was uncommonly kind to her over the next few days, materializing on the couch where she slumped, kneading her legs with long elegant strokes of the paw, and settling himself in her lap for a quick snooze. Devon had called -- his travels would be ending soon and he would be retrieving Sergeant at the end of the month. By which time, Everly thought, she and the cat would have become inseparably attached to one another.